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The race to the White House: 10 things to know

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Snow begins to fall at President's Park across the street from the White House, in Washington, DC, USA, January 22, 2016. Michael Reynolds/EPA

WASHINGTON DC, USA – Residents of the US heartland state of Iowa will cast the first votes in the presidential nominations process on February 1, ahead of the November 8 election.

Here are 10 key things to know about the US presidential campaign:

Republicans everywhere

THE GOP FIELD. (L-R) Ohio Governor John Kasich, businesswoman Carly Fiorina, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, neurosurgeon Ben Carson, real estate developer Donald Trump, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul during the US Republican Presidential candidate debate at The Venetian Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, December 15, 2015. Ruth Fremson/Pool/EPA

The Republican field, with more than a dozen candidates at the start, is unusually large and fractured. 

The rare absence of establishment-backed Republicans atop the field – even as relative political novices like Donald Trump have flourished – has led some to predict a serious splintering of the party.

Feel the Bern

BERNIE SANDERS. A file picture dated April 28, 2012 shows US Senator Bernie Sanders discussing the need for Wall Street reform debate outside U.S. Capitol building on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. USA. Astrid Riecken/EPA

The success of Bernie Sanders has stunned many observers, especially as a self-proclaimed democratic socialist in a country where the "socialist" label has been political poison. 

But while some young and liberal Democrats have embraced his blunt populist message, his lack of foreign policy experience could hurt him. 

Teflon Don(ald)?

TRUMP. A file picture dated February 27, 2015 shows American businessman Donald Trump on stage to address the American Conservative Union's 42nd Annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) at National Harbor, Maryland, USA. Photo by Pete Marovich / EPA

Trump has taken Teflon politics to new heights, soaring in the polls despite (or because of) a steady stream of provocative statements that would have doomed many a candidacy. 

Instead, he has dominated the spotlight with what even critics say has been a masterful use of social media.

GOP marathon

Republican leaders had hoped to avoid a long and costly primary battle that could pull the ultimate victor too far to the right. 

Yet analysts say that the nominating season could extend well into the spring, and that Republicans might not even know their candidate's name until the party's nominating convention in July.

Lesser of the evils?

EPA file photos

Many people in both parties might be holding their noses in the voting booth. Both Trump and Hillary Clinton have strong supporters, but also unusually high negatives in nationwide polls.

A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey found nearly half of US voters had negative views of Clinton, and six in 10 had such views of Trump. 

Super PACs

The Supreme Court's "Citizens United" ruling in 2010 made it far easier for the independent political groups known as Super PACs to raise and spend huge amounts of money in favor of candidates, potentially a difference-maker. 

Yet someone like the billionaire Trump, as he often points out, need not be beholden to big-money donors.

Madame President?

'AMERICA'S CHAMPION.' Hillary Clinton announces her 2016 presidential bid through a video posted on her website hillaryclinton.com. Screenshot from the campaign video

Despite the unexpectedly strong challenge from Sanders, Clinton remains well-positioned to become the first woman to capture a major party's nomination. 

She could then make history as the country's first woman president – in which case the ever-controversial Bill Clinton would become the first First Husband.

Third time unlucky

Yet, history and voter fatigue do not favor the continued grip on power of a party that has already controlled the White House for two terms. 

There are exceptions, of course – most recently, the 1988 election of Republican George H.W. Bush after the eight-year Ronald Reagan presidency.

Hispanic vote

The Hispanic factor is worth watching. Both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio have Cuban roots, and backers say they could help the party among traditionally Democratic Latino voters (70 percent of whom were Obama voters in 2012).

But the two men have been jousting fiercely over which would be tougher on immigration. At the same time, many Latinos say Obama has not done enough for immigrants.   

Wild cards

As in every election, wild-card issues can drastically alter the dynamics. 

Some possibilities: a major terror attack involving Americans, new troubles in the Middle East, a contentious Supreme Court ruling on immigration, another hot summer of racial tensions, a damaging FBI report on Clinton's handling of State Department emails, and of course the fate of the oh-so-rocky US economic recovery.  – Rappler.com


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